UK Carbon Cuts ‘on track’
That was the headline today as the Government published its emissions score card for 2008 and so demonstrated that carbon dioxide (equivalent) emissions had fallen in line with the Climate Change Act’s carbon budget. The equivalent term just means that a whole bunch of greenhouse gases (inc. methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride) have been aggregated into units equivalent to CO2.
This is a good news story. Climate Change Minister Joan Ruddock is quoted in the press release:
Today’s emissions score card shows that the UK’s climate change policies are working and that we’re on track to meet our carbon targets.
We’re putting in place policies to make the low carbon transition by supporting investment in clean energy, in insulating homes and creating green jobs.
Call me a spoil sport, but I don’t buy it. One has to be careful when thinking about correlation and causation. I put it to you that the 1.9% decline in UK CO2e emissions from 2007 to 2008 was not in fact due to the “UK’s climate change policies” as Ruddock would have us believe but an inevitable result of the recession the country entered that year.
The Quarterly national accounts for 4th quarter 2008 (published 27th March 2009) can shed some light on the matter. The following charts show UK GDP growth, then the separate performance of the manufacturing and service sectors as we entered recession in 2008. Note the vertical scales are different.
Whilst total GDP growth for 2008 was still just positive for 2008 at 0.5% (the declines didn’t really manifest until the 2nd half of the year) this hides the fact that the relatively energy and carbon intense manufacturing sector was disproportionately hit by the recession.
I’m disappointed by the disingenuous (at best) way the Government is presenting the emission data. Claiming responsibility and credit whilst not recognising the surely highly significant role the recession has played in reducing UK emissions.
Looking forward, what can we expect? 2009 is very likely to show a further decline, strongly influenced by the continued decline in the economy. It is as I highlighted in a post a few months ago, economic collapse (as seen by the Soviet Union) is a tremendous way of cutting CO2 emissions.
I don’t think that is the climate change policy Joan Ruddock has in mind!
Good analysis Chris – I also read that press release and thought it needed unpacking. My other thought was the continuous references to progress since 1990. Of course, that is the established baseline for international agreements but the majority of that 22% cut since 1990 was achieved through the crumbling of the domestic coal industry and the resulting ‘dash for gas’ before Labour came to power. Quoting that figure gives the impression of steady progress towards our targets from 1990 to the present day; that is not the reality.
Blog looks good – you have a new subscriber!
Thanks Warren. Here’s a great video that make the point about cuts since 1990.
CO2 emissions down since 1990 under the Conservative government, then increases under the Labour government. It’s not that one party had better climate change policies than the other, far from it. The point is taking credit where it’s not due.
That’s a bit harsh, Chris. Surely they can take some credit for the recession, having presided since 1997 over continuing deregulation of the financial sector, encouragement of risky practices and promotion of a completely unsustainable growth paradigm?
Well done Mr Brown – and how modest of him not to claim the credit for these excellent results of DECC!
🙂
Perhaps Mr. Brown has already learnt the lesson of Shaun’s excellent cartoon.